Episode Transcripts
Cleaned, readable transcripts for 44 episodes — filler removed, turns merged into paragraphs, and chapters added where the source recording marks them.
Daron Acemoglu on pro-worker AI and vibes based capital
Martin Beraja on AI-tocracy, the Benefits of Unclear Property Rights, and the Massive Potential of AI to Optimize Firms
Does GDP Growth Mislead Us About Quality of Life?
Reading Trammell & Jones on Measuring Living Standards
Is AI Replacing Programmers or Boosting Them?
Justified Posteriors reads "Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools" by Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff, and Liyuan Yang
No AI Jobs Apocalypse (Yet) - and a Debt Problem (Now) | Martha Gimbel (Yale Budget Lab)
Litigating the Pope's AI Encyclical with the Lawyers of Scaling Laws Pod
Everyone loves a crossover episode! We discuss "On Safeguarding the Human Person in the Time of Artificial Intelligence" by Pope Leo and "Positive Alignment" by a team of AI researchers.
Ioana Marinescu on Insuring Workers for AI, Monopsony, and Philosophy
Kevin Bryan on Bottlenecks, AI in China, and What Economists Should Actually Be Working On
Seb Krier on AGI, the Coasean Singularity, and EDM
Justified Posteriors talk to the AGI Policy Dev Lead for Google DeepMind
Avi Goldfarb on Prediction Machines, O-Ring Tasks, and How AI is Reshaping Economics
Justified Posteriors Interviews Avi Goldfarb, Rotman Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare, and Professor of Marketing at the University of Toronto
The classic model that shows why AI exposure could increase wages
Revisiting Kremer's O-ring theory of economic development
The Most Important Philosophical Treatise of the 21st Century?
Justified Posteriors Critiques the Anthropic Constitution
Alex Imas - Demand Collapse, Bargaining with Machines, and Behavioral AI Economics
The Economics of Book Slop
Justified Posteriors reads “AI and the Quantity and Quality of Creative Products” by Imke Reimers and Joel Waldfogel
Noah Smith on Blogging, AI Economics, and Elite Overproduction
Basil Halperin: Leading Indicators for TAI, Conditions for the Singularity, and Tax Policy at the End of History
Justified Posteriors Interview Basil Halperin, Assistant Professor at University of Virginia
Can an AI Interview You Better Than a Human?
Voice AI in Firms: A Natural Field Experiment on Automated Job Interviews
Anecdotes from AI Supercharged Science
Justified Posteriors reads "Early Science Acceleration Experiments with GPT-5"
Ben Golub: AI Referees, Social Learning, and Virtual Currencies
And yes, we talk about eigenvalues and cow-tipping!
Are We There Yet? Evaluating METR’s Eval of AI’s Ability to Complete Tasks of Different Lengths
Discussing METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks"
Epistemic Apocalypse and Prediction Markets (Bo Cowgill Pt. 2)
On the uses of language, from information to incantation.
Does AI Cheapen Talk? (Bo Cowgill Pt. 1)
It all depends on the covariance term
Evaluating GDPVal, OpenAI's Eval for Economic Value
GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable Tasks
Will Super-Intelligence's Opportunity Costs Save Human Labor?
Reading "We Won't Be Missed: Work and Growth in the Era of AGI" by Pascual Restrepo
Can political science contribute to the AI discourse?
Reading "AI as Governance" by Henry Farrell in the Annual Review of Political Science
Should AI Read Without Permission?
Discovering what AI learns from unlicensed books in "Cloze Encounters: The Impact of Pirated Data Access on LLM Performance" by Stella Jia and Abhishek Nagaraj
EMERGENCY POD: Is AI already causing youth unemployment?
We discuss "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence"
AI and its labor market effects in the knowledge economy
Artificial Intelligence and the Knowledge Economy by Ide and Talamas
One LLM to rule them all?
Demand for LLMs: Descriptive Evidence on Substitution, Market Expansion, and Multi-Homing
What can we learn from AI exposure measures?
Interview with Daniel Rock (Wharton)
A Resource Curse for AI?
A Discussion of "The Intelligence Curse"
Robots for the retired?
Do aging populations and a scarcity of workers drive the adoption of robots?
When Humans and Machines Don't Say What They Think
Political Correctness, Social Image, and Information Transmission
Scaling Laws Meet Persuasion
Scaling Language Model Size Yields Diminishing Returns for Single-Message Political Persuasion
Techno-prophets try macroeconomics: are they hallucinating?
We evaluate the detail-rich "GATE: An Integrated Assessment Model for AI Automation" model and research paper by Epoch AI
Did Meta's Algorithms Swing the 2020 Election?
A major preregistered study of Facebook recommendations and political behavior changes our view
Claude Just Refereed the Anthropic Economic Index
Reviewer 2 Has Thoughts
How much should we invest in AI safety?
We discuss Chad Jones' papers on existential risk and investment in society.
Can AI make better decisions than an ER doctor?
Diagnosing Physician Error: A Machine Learning Approach to Low-Value Health Care
If the Robots Are Coming, Why Aren't Interest Rates Higher?
Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates
Is Social Media a Trap?
Discussion of "When Product Markets Become Collective Traps: The Case of Social Media"
Beyond Task Replacement
Artificial Intelligence Technologies and Aggregate Growth Prospects by Tim Bresnahan
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
by Daron Acemoglu -- But does he oversimplify?
Situational Awareness
The first episode of our new podcast.
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